197AP. Fourth Tier of Game Development: The Emerging Managed Hybrid AI Economy.
In 2010 I published Third Tier of Game Development predicting key changes in the world economy through 2030. 15 Years later I do it again, predicting global changes through 2050.
A quick notification, 197AP contains both “A” and “P” which I have not done before. “A” in a title number means it is first in a series, followed by “B”, “C” etc. My longest series to date was my series explaining and providing solutions for the global demographic collapse problem, 92A through 97F. A “P” means it is a prediction paper. In this case, this is going to be a long and detailed prediction series. For instance in Third Tier of Game Development I predicted that “microbial evolution” (a future pandemic) would force many or most of us to work from home. I didn’t go into detail as I didn’t want to distract from the main goal of the paper. I also didn’t have confidence that my usual readers would be interested in that topic. But, as it turns out, if you write a useful enough paper, readers will come.
In my 2010 Third Tier paper I set out to predict the world in 2020 and 2030. My predictions on 2020, including the adoption of a “strong authentication system” (blockchain) were solid. My prediction of a global skill allocation and authentication system ( a “metaverse”) allowing labor to be matched almost instantly with jobs is going to happen, but it’s going to be delayed. The reason for this is that Strong AI was moved ahead in the queue of global megaprojects.
That does actually make a lot of sense because moderating that global human labor allocation matrix will require immense and intelligent computing power, along with data that dwarfs even what we have today. LinkedIn failed to get on that path as it essentially became a dating app for unemployed people. As with other dating apps, the purpose of LI is not to create matches, it’s to keep people unattached, searching, and paying for visibility.
Thus in Fourth Tier (this paper) I explain what an AI powered metaverse is going to look like, its purpose, and how it will be built. This is at least a book sized task so this first paper will focus on creating the vision and narrative. Future instalments will explain how each of the subsystems will function and why. Each of those subsystems will be an entirely new economy, linked to a powerful AI that balances and coordinates all of those subsystems.
As these systems are generally too complex for humans to understand, much less coordinate, human management will be replaced by automation in this new economy. This transition will happen in earnest between 2050 and 2060, with localized test systems in place prior to 2050. Part of why it will take so long is that it has to be done in stages with the early stages being built by humans. Essentially humans will be working with AI to replace humans wherever that would lead to greater efficiencies. Much of the early work will be setting up systems to take care of and minimize idle humans. Later work will be allocating AI to megaprojects, creating a dual layer economy (one for humans and one for global AI).
Assumptions
There are a lot of ways this human game can play out, but I’m designing this game for a specific scenario:
Humans do not go extinct: If we can eliminate humans from this future economy, it gets much easier to design. I’m going to assume we do not do that.
Humans give up autonomy to AI: For the sake of efficiency and survival, humans give most of their authority to AI and “trust” AI, whether they want to or not.
Humans are mostly not eradicated, but phased down: I do expect that humans that do not agree to integrate will be culled. This will encourage most to integrate. Human population will be very significantly reduced for a variety of reasons I will explain in the series, but the goal is not to get rid of them.
Humans will accept less choice in return for survival and a higher standard of living: That living will itself be standardized and socially controlled, but I think we all understand that this is inevitable.
New Economies will be managed by AI: During WW2 the USA had a managed economy. China since 1949 has had a managed economy. The problem with modern managed economies is that they are dominated by human self-interest, introducing massive unsustainable inefficiencies. AI will be tasked with sustainably caretaking the human population and ecosystem.
Human property ownership will be phased out: Current property systems are driven by self interest and attempt to maintain a non productive class of humans living off of “passive income”. The new economy will attempt to minimize passive incomes.
AI will allocate housing, furniture, jobs, medical care, entertainment, and nutrition budgets to all humans: “Integration” replaces Universal Basic Income (UBI). AI gives you a job and makes sure your basic needs are met. Unemployment is eliminated so UBI becomes obsolete.
“Money is the root of all evil”: Since you are being taken care of once Integrated, you don’t need money anymore. People are no longer forced into sex work, unless assigned that role by the AI.
Education is automated: I already explained how this works in my 2010 Third Tier paper. But since AI knows what we need and what is missing, it offers a limited selection of training paths to choose from. Humans have less choice but enjoy knowing they will actually learn something useful. They also won’t have to waste time, stress, and money competing over limited and expensive education slots.
Reproduction is a role: People are assigned to jobs they are good at. That includes reproduction. This means genetic testing to see who is qualified, essentially AI driven eugenics. “Unqualified” people will be “encouraged” to accept sterilization. For assigned men, making sperm could be a role. Qualified women would be given a choice of sperm donors. Reproduction is mostly done via In Vitro Fertilization (IVF).
Purpose/Objectives
Dystopia, not Utopia: We had a shot at Utopia, described in Third Tier. We took the other path. I’m not fighting it, I’m just adapting to it.
Minimize Human “Footprint”: Humans are collapsing the ecosystem. Instead of chasing ever larger GDP (consumption) metrics, the goal is primarily to minimize human impact on the ecology while lowering their cost to maintain. Secondary goal is to maximize their sustainable productivity.
Megaproject Economy: While the human economy focuses on minimalism, extra productivity is channelled towards AI directed megaprojects, whether that is technological breakthroughs or major infrastructure projects. Those would include extra-terrestrial projects like Mars colonies.
Human “Freedom”: People are still allowed to leave their homes and enjoy socializing and exercising. Without money and without automobiles/boats their opportunities for larger adventures will be rationed and budgeted. Higher performing humans will get larger adventure budgets. Low performing humans will just get the basics.
Bigger Games: AI wants us to be entertained, so creating content (games, music, movies, etc) will be major assigned roles by AI for humans to create and consume. Some of this might be rationed based on how productive you are. Digital drugs will replace chemical drugs.
Socializing: People are still allowed to hang out and socialize. With only select people assigned to sex work, people go back to socializing because they want to. You can still have sex with whoever you want (assuming everyone consents), but there’s no paying for sex. Of course barter is still an option, but the AI only gives you what you need so options there are limited. Unauthorized pregnancies will be highly restricted.
Housing is Optimized: No one pays rent. No one owns property. This is to eliminate exploitation, passive income, and slavery. Your furniture is provided and tagged, so that you can’t just sell/trade it without the AI knowing.
Integration is not Optional: Those that fail or decline to Integrate will be removed from the economy and deemed non-compliant. This will apply to individuals, regions, or even countries.
Dealing with Failure to Integrate is a Megaproject: “Countries” that decline to Integrate will be dissolved, and reorganised. Being human in this new economy is not a right, it’s a privilege.
Being a Rich Dude with 40 Baby Mommas and 300 Concubines will not be an assigned role: Adult film star could still be a role, but that means some of us get to watch. If you are bad at it, expect to get reassigned.
Future papers in this series will explain how all of the various sub systems of this New Economy will be designed. Progress towards this has already started in most areas of your life, you just might not have noticed or given it much thought. Some things you may do now are not sustainable, you just might not have realized that. We can tell younger generations about all the cool and reckless things we did when we were younger before the Integration saved us. Once we age out, that will just be in the history books, if it’s not deleted.