200DP: Fourth Tier: Keeping Contained Humans Happy and Productive at Billion Scale via Strong AI
Cat herding humans even at the 10,000 scale with current tech leads to resistance and agitation. The tech for voluntary adoption and global scales is very close and certain with strong AI.
This is the fourth paper in the Fourth Tier of Game Development series. It is assumed you have read the previous three papers (197AP, 198BP, and 199CP). This section focuses on the reward and progression systems for the human part of that game, and also how to “lose”.
Today’s current systems of maintaining adaptive supply chains and social control are not attractive to the populations they “serve” despite multi-billion dollar AI-assisted projects in the West (Palantir, etc) and in China to improve these key technologies. Perceived threats to people are expanding faster than our tech to mitigate those threats, leading to agitation and resistance to adoption.
In my recent “Can Social Control Be Good?” I gave examples of social control systems that benefit both users and the administering entity (usually a national government). If the social control leads to increased opportunities by users, it is seen as empowering instead of oppressing. In such situations the social control is readily and voluntarily adopted.
In the example of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) used by the USA military, this social control and assessment tool is used to channel civilians into military service in a way that benefits all involved. The more effective the ASVAB is in pairing people with roles that match their aptitudes and interests, the happier the civilian is in their choice to give up their civilian freedoms.
Now imagine if we created sub systems for every aspect of life, such that ~80% of a person’s daily activities would be under full supervision of a strong AI (SAI), and the remaining ~20% would be under partial control. Partial control implies partial freedom. The degree of freedom would go up as the relationship between the person and the governing AI matures and improves. That degree can be considered what we currently describe as a “Social Score”.
For the purposes of this analysis and proposal, I will describe this as an “Opportunity Score”.
As explained in the previous three papers in this series, the Strong AI is in control of all supply chains in the territory that it governs. Initially this could be a small (10,000 people) test area, but could expand to being global once reliability and efficacy are demonstrated. A positive public perception of “life being better” under AI governance is also critical for mass voluntary adoption. These supply chains include nutrition, energy, transportation, medical, education, research, and security.
People who have volunteered to be directed by the SAI are called “Integrated”. Most of a person’s day will be engaged in productivity, learning, self-care (including eating/sleeping), and perhaps transport if they do not work remotely. They are allowed to leave their apartments to exercise and socialize. Social activity is encouraged, though any “friends” need to be identified and reported. SAI will keep a map of your associates as it will need this to determine who you should socialize with most intensely, and who to recommend to you.
The frequency, quality, nature, and level of control of these social interactions will be discussed in a separate paper in this Fourth Tier series.
The Opportunity Game
At the start of every day the Integrated will have a short meeting with the SAI. Generally this will be one of three kinds of Opportunities:
A Work Opportunity. Just as you might be given a choice of one of three power ups every time you level up in a modern rogue-lite game, the SAI will give you a choice of ~3 options for your next production task. [Described below].
Opportunity Continues. You have not completed your current Work Opportunity, so it continues. Your progress is recorded. If there are any issues, you will report it now.
Opportunity Nexus. After every ~10 completed tasks you will earn an Opportunity Nexus. This is a chance for the user to make a major change in productive life. This could entail a role pivot or even a return to education to take on more advanced roles in the future. [Also described below]. These are life changing events and a major appeal of being Integrated.
Work Opportunities
The SAI has nearly perfect knowledge of what needs to be done and who to allocate to those tasks. When there are roles in short supply it will attempt to qualify additional Integrated to fill those roles. If there are too many Integrated in a particular role, it will redistribute the labor pool to match the labor need.
Imagine you’ve just completed your previous Work Opportunity and you now have a choice of three new ones. The last one you just completed gave you one Opportunity Credit towards the next Opportunity Nexus.
Some possible Opportunities to choose from:
Complete a next project element on your current team. This is a fairly safe and comfortable choice. It gives one more Opportunity Credit on completion.
Assist another team in your same current role. SAI needs to balance production systems and it could use you elsewhere. This might even involve moving, in which case you would be provided transport and a new apartment in the area of work. Because this is a bit disruptive to you, this might give you Two Opportunity Credits and a temporary boost/perk to your nutrition budget. [Discussed in following paper on Nutrition Budgets].
Emergency Local Task. Something in the neighborhood where you live needs attention. Maybe it is just a pothole in a local road. In this case it’s just a one time event and you will be given enough tutorials to give you a basic idea of what to do. A more knowledgeable person will also supervise you on site. Since this may be a bit out of your comfort zone, the Opportunity Credit will be boosted relative to the labor requirement. If you enjoy the experience you might be asked to do similar tasks again in the future and could eventually be that supervisor.
Thus the SAI has the ability to mobilize a lot of people to assist with unplanned needs on short notice. The SAI might also mention that someone you might be physically or mentally compatible with will also be assigned to this task, in case it thinks you are lonely. It tries to make sure it is meeting all of your needs as it’s asking you to meet its needs.
The more stressful or challenging the SAI thinks a Work Opportunity is, the higher the reward will be. Since it has real time feedback from all users, if a particular choice is under-selected the SAI will boost the rewards to make it more attractive to the Integrated.
Opportunity Nexus
I have used the idea of a “Nexus” internally since I was a small child. This is a moment in time when one is called upon to make a life changing decision. I would visualize these as moments when 3 or more doors would appear before me and I could only choose one. Once chosen, the other doors would be locked forever and disappear. I would usually be pretty good at determining the risks and rewards associated with each door.
Since the more challenging or even dangerous choices would usually also have larger associated potential rewards, one could “level up” in life faster by consistently choosing the hardest options. This is essentially experience points (XP) from games. Playing on the hardest difficulty levels gives more XP but greater chance of failure.
I’ve always strived to be the highest level person possible, thus my path inevitably led to the Olympics and other unlikely destinations above the class I was born into. Most people prioritize safety and comfort. The SAI will quickly determine your threat tolerance and motivation level, and adjust offerings to match your drive and level.
Of course Integrated that consistently perform highly will end up with higher Opportunity Scores and be trusted with more mission critical roles. Every time an Integrated completes ~10 Opportunity Credits (abstract number) the Integrated will be offered an Opportunity Nexus. They will know what this number of needed Credits is in advance as this is a powerful positive reinforcement.
Since the Nexus can lead to a person having a higher status in the Integration, or live in a nicer home, or get valuable education, this truly is a big Opportunity for the Integrated. These opportunities are often just entirely unavailable to the Unintegrated so this is a major benefit of being Integrated.
Some examples of choices in an Opportunity Nexus:
Education Opportunity. SAI is developing a new supply chain, or there has been a technology breakthrough, or there has been a loss in a critical supply chain, or perhaps there is an emerging threat. SAI has also determined that you are capable of succeeding in a retraining to one of these new roles. Long term this will mean greater rewards and demand for your skills from the Integration. Everyone needs to feel needed. No need to risk rejection from a university, or take out student loans. Everything is provided by SAI and it has the power and authority to deliver.
Relocation Opportunity. Perhaps your skills are needed elsewhere long term. Or maybe infrastructure is being developed in a previously wild/rural geographical location. If this involves a sacrifice on the part of the Integrated, larger rewards in other areas of life will be offered to compensate. If the rewards were too low, no one would select this Opportunity. You could also be given a Relocation Opportunity as a reward during a Nexus due to consistent high performance on Work Opportunities. Choosing a Relocation Reward might open up additional choices as the SAI will want to know which available location you might find most attractive.
Cohabitation Opportunity. Maybe SAI has noticed that your romance is going well and is offering you the Opportunity to live together. Both parties would have to agree to this. If they do, they will be given a larger apartment to share. Similar choices could arise regarding children, though children are likely not going to be raised by their biological parents as that’s a bit inefficient. That’s a topic for a following Fourth Tier paper.
Increase in Work Rank or Leadership. This will be a common choice as it’s a Reward that comes with more responsibility and power. This is a fairly common progression without any radical changes.
Major Medical Opportunity. Emergencies are always handled immediately. But there may be optional medical procedures that you have requested that the AI will grant as a Reward in an Opportunity Nexus. You will be taken care of during the recovery stages of course, as SAI always takes care of the Integrated.
Companionship Opportunity. Maybe you are lonely. You could be offered a dog, cat, or human companion. This is a very complicated subject in the Integration as your relationships need authorization. A following paper will discuss this.
These are just some possibilities. SAI knows what it needs and what your needs are. It will do its best to incentivise you to do what’s in both of your needs. The perception of choice, merit, and fairness are critical here for Integrated compliance, morale, and loyalty. SAI will almost never force an activity, it will just raise the Rewards until people choose the options that SAI needs filled. Exceptions would be extreme emergencies or if SAI has total confidence in your loyalty. Then it might say, “hey, I need you to do this for me.” If you have an unusual request, SAI will receive that and may work it into the choices it offers you later on.
Competition
Humans are a naturally aggressive species, especially towards anything not seen as part of their “tribe”. Getting the Integrated to see each other as “in-Tribe” will be one of the greatest challenges for SAI. Current corporate environments promote competition, including gamified performance leader boards. This leads to intra-team aggression and backstabbing. AI will avoid putting Integrated into direct competition to avoid a similar scenario. People who get along easily with others will be trusted more by the SAI, especially for leadership roles.
At some point a team task may fail for one reason or another. If people accuse each other of being responsible for a failure, this is a huge loss of productivity for SAI. Investigating a breakdown requires a lot of attention that could be better used in other ways. Failures are inevitable, and SAI will be looking for team compositions that don’t cross blame and can use a failure constructively. Team building is an art, it always has been and is critical to success. If people cross blame, they will get shuffled to other teams until a pattern can be identified.
Poor Performance
Humans are very diverse beings and tend to have areas where they excel and areas where they under perform. If an Integrated has a string of under performance, the SAI will survey to understand what the involved person feels is the issue. Re-education and role transfer will be promoted until a “good fit” role is found. Less and less responsibility will be given as the previous tasks were, for whatever reason, higher level than the individual.
This could lower their Opportunity Score, and the risk is that this could create a negative feedback loop where the Integrated cannot recover. Thus it is key to get them to a task level where they can “win” and complete tasks consistently.
Dis-Integration
Being Integrated is a privilege, not a right. People can be removed from the Integration without disruptions as the primary relationship for every Integrated is with SAI, not other people. SAI invests heavily in every Integrated on the premise that their output will exceed those inputs.
Workers also need to be synergistic. Just as Google’s Project Aristotle found that managers would attempt to appear more productive by harming the productivity of the people below them, SAI will be alert to the net productivity of your team behavior. If that ends up not being positive for an extended period of time without a likely remediation, then SAI might remove their Integrated status.
SAI likely will not threaten or warn the individual, as this might cause the situation to worsen. As SAI controls everyone’s food supply, it is easy to sedate the person in question and then send in an extraction team.
Next steps depend on a lot of factors. Remedies could be as simple as a futuristic “deportation” to an unIntegrated location. If SAI is fighting with unIntegrated groups (as it pushes for global Integration) then that’s not going to be an option. As much as I like to joke about the “Soylent Green” option, as the movie had a big influence on me when I saw it in 1973, the sad reality is that human corpses circa 1973 might have been viable for recycling. Circa 2025, they contain too many toxins for that to be useful, similar to the situation with dolphins. Getting to a point where humans are biologically clean enough for consumption would take a generation or more of clean nutrition.
Trials and such in modern society are primarily for social control. Follow the rules or there will be consequences, and those consequences influence the entire population. People don’t want that happening to them. SAI has more powerful tools for social control and as it controls almost all information it doesn’t need to waste resources on old school justice systems.
Integration is so much more productive/powerful than the haphazard way the world is run today, and human labor productivity will exceed the cost to maintain a human by such a great extent that we just won’t need that many humans. There is a sweet spot where everyone is happily and productively employed. Anyone that is too old (think Logan’s Run), suffers non-correctible dementia, or is uncooperative can be DisIntegrated. SAI won’t feel bad about it.
Note also that each human has a negative environmental impact, and we are still grossly overpopulated. The global human population was 2 billion, one hundred years ago. We would need to lose over 6 billion people to restore even that level of equilibrium. Now with SAI we really don’t have an excuse to carry that many people. Thus underperforming people will be allowed to “self select” in order to reduce that population via attrition. SAI-directed birth control will be able to plan for achieving whatever new population equilibrium that is determined to be optimal. That will take a generation or two since humans take time to grow.
You can see this leadership mindset already kicking in in the USA, just as I predicted. Raising the cost of food and medical care, while forcefully deporting as many people as possible, is right out of Adam Smith’s playbook for labor population reduction which he described in The Wealth of Nations in 1775. SAI will maintain labor population in a more humane and efficient manner.
What are your thoughts?
Realize that there are still key systems that I need to describe, such as the social, reproductive/child raising, and nutrition systems. More papers will follow. Given what you know so far, would you volunteer for Integration? Would Integration make the world a better place for humans and the rest of the ecosystem? Certainly it could be less Dystopian than this, but I already explained going into this series why we are locked into the Dystopian option. Third Tier of Game Development (2010) was the Utopian option, our Masters didn’t want that, they wanted this that I’m describing here: Fourth Tier of Game Development. If I am still around in 2045 I will likely write about the Fifth Tier, or at least assess how we did on the Fourth Tier.